In recent years, Odisha has emerged as a pivotal battleground in Indian politics, marking a significant shift in power dynamics. Once a stronghold of the Congress-led UPA, the state has experienced a notable rise in the influence of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), led by Naveen Patnaik. The upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024 promise a three-way contest, with the BJD, NDA, and I.N.D.I.A. alliance vying for supremacy.
According to a recent opinion poll conducted by News18, NDA is expected to secure 12 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats from Odisha, while the I.N.D.I.A. bloc is expected to draw a blank. BJD is seen getting eight seats.
In the 2019 elections, the BJD secured 12 seats, while the BJP clinched eight, leaving the Indian National Congress (INC) with a single seat.
The vote shares paint a similar picture: NDA with 43%, I.N.D.I.A. bloc with 15%, and other parties getting 42%. Among others, the BJD is anticipated to secure a significant portion with 40%, while the remaining parties are expected to garner 2%.
Central government’ performance
According to the recent opinion poll encompassing 4,418 respondents, the satisfaction levels with the performance of the central government and Prime Minister over the last five years were unveiled. Among the participants, 57% expressed varying degrees of satisfaction, with 42% indicating being very satisfied, and 15% somewhat satisfied. Conversely, dissatisfaction levels accounted for 29% of the responses, with 17% somewhat dissatisfied and 12% very dissatisfied. Notably, 14% of the respondents remained neutral, expressing neither satisfaction nor dissatisfaction.
Factors influencing votes
When queried about the primary factors influencing their choice of party in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, respondents provided valuable insights. Among the plethora of considerations, three key factors emerged as paramount. A significant 52% cited the law and order situation as a crucial determinant, closely followed by jobs at 46% and inflation at 44%. Other factors such as religion, corruption, and infrastructure & development also weighed on the minds of voters, though to a lesser extent, with percentages ranging from 22-38%.
Performance of sitting MPs
Inquiring into the satisfaction levels with the performance of the sitting members of Parliament (MPs) representing their Lok Sabha constituency over the last five years, the results unveiled a mixed sentiment, with 51% respondents expressing varying degrees of satisfaction. Notably, 41% indicated being very satisfied, while 10% reported being somewhat satisfied. In contrast, dissatisfaction levels accounted for 30% of the responses, with 19% somewhat dissatisfied and 11% very dissatisfied. Additionally, 17% remained neutral, asserting neither satisfaction nor dissatisfaction.
State government performance
Regarding the performance of the state government, a substantial 65% expressed contentment with the government’s performance, with 46% indicating being very satisfied and 19% somewhat satisfied. Conversely, dissatisfaction levels stood at 22%, with 15% somewhat dissatisfied” and 7% very dissatisfied.
Notably, every respondent polled had an opinion on the state government’s performance, leaving the undecided column blank.
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