The Congress is currently in power in only three states — Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal. The grand-old party won the Himachal Assembly elections in December 2022, the Karnataka Assembly elections in May 2023 and the Telangana Assembly elections in December 2023.
Now, as the Lok Sabha Elections get underway, how will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) perform in these states under Congress’s rule? And what happens if the BJP wins in these three states? The answer may (or may not) lie in the performances in previous elections.
It is a well-known fact that the results of Lok Sabha polls is not always on the lines of the state assembly polls. Simply put, if one party wins the assembly polls, it doesn’t guarantee that the same party will also win the parliamentary polls. There are many incidents to prove this. Let’s take the states one by one.
Karnataka
What do opinion polls say? The India TV-CNX Opinion Poll suggested that the BJP is likely to win the currently Congress-ruled Karnataka by winning 22 out of 28 Lok Sabha. India Today’s Mood of the Nation also gave an edge to the BJP in Karnataka. It revealed that the NDA (BJP + JDS) may win 24 seats and the INDIA bloc is likely to bag four seats.
Trends in previous elections: Karnataka assembly polls have shown a “revolving door” pattern – meaning the government (party in power) has changed every five years. However, the state has consistently voted in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls.
Last time, it was in 1999 that the Congress had won more Lok Sabha seats than the BJP. The Congress had bagged the maximum 18 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka in 1999, while the BJP had won just eight. After 1999, the BJP has been winning more Lok Sabha seats than the Congress – although the state government has been shuffling between the BJP and the Congress.
What happened in previous polls? In the 2013-2014 election cycle, the BJP won the Lok Sabha Elections in 2014, while it lost the assembly elections in 2013. In the 2013 assembly polls, the BJP had won 40 seats, while the Congress had won 122 seats and the JD(S) 40 seats of the total 224 seats. Just a year later (2014), the BJP had won 17 seats(the majority), the Congress nine and the JD(S) two.
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, the BJP had won 104 seats, emerging as the single largest party. It, however, failed to form the government as it fell short of seven seats to cross the majority mark. A year later, in the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP won the maximum 25 seats of the total 28. One seat each was won by the Congress, the JD(S) and an independent candidate.
What happened next after 2019 polls? The Congress government collapse. The Congress-JDS(S)-led government in Karnataka collapsed after Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy lost the vote of confidence in the assembly. The BJP formed the government in the state.
This year, it is believed that if the Congress loses the Lok Sabha Elections to the BJP, the Siddaramaiah-led current state government may fall.
Telangana
What do opinion polls say? The Mood of the Nation poll suggested that the biggest gain for the Congress would be in Telangana. The Congress would get 10 seats, up from three seats it won in 2019. The BJP, however, would lose a seat and settle at three in Telangana. Meanwhile, India TV-CNX opinion poll said the BJP could win four seats in Telangana.
What happened in past elections? The state of Telangana was formed in 2014. The regional Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) had won the state’s first assembly polls in 2018, as well as its first Lok Sabha polls in 2019.
In the 2018 assembly elections, a maximum of 88 seats of the total 119 seats were won by the then TRS. The BJP had won just one seat, while the Congress won 19 seats, the AIMIM seven seats and the TDP 2 seats.
A year later, in the 2019 national elections, the TRS swept the polls, winning nine seats; the BJP had won four seats, while the Congress and the AIMIM won three and one seat, respectively.
However, in its second assembly polls, Telangana was won by the Congress. In the 2023 assembly polls, the grand-old party had crossed the majority mark in the assembly, that is, 60, to form government in the state. Now, will this year’s Lok Sabha Elections be in line with the assembly polls last year, as it happened in the previous election cycle? This will ascertained only on June 4 when the results will be announced.
Himachal Pradesh
What do opinion polls say? Both the Mood of the Nation poll and India TV-CNX opinion poll suggested that the BJP is likely to win all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal Pradesh, as it did in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Network18 Mega Opinion Poll predicted that the BJP could net a whopping 67 percent of the votes, the Congress could end up with only 27 percent.
What happened in past elections? The BJP has been winning all the four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal since 2014. Here’s a comparison with assembly polls which happened in Himachal Pradesh two years before the Lok Sabha polls:
The case of Himachal Pradesh becomes even more interesting, keeping in view the latest rebellion amid the ruling Congress party. In the 2024 Rajya Sabha Elections, a few Congress leaders were believed to have voted in the favour of the BJP candidate – indicting a rift within the Congress’s state unit.
This makes it clear that if one party wins an assembly poll, it does not entirely reflect upon the result of the subsequent Lok Sabha Elections. What happened in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections — will the BJP cross the 370 mark; will Congress lose states it currently rules? The speculations will end only on June 4, when results for this year’s Lok Sabha Elections will be announced.
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